What Rancho Santa Margarita’s home sales are saying
A three-month read on price, pace, and product differences—built from 128 closed SFR and condo/townhouse sales, with practical implications for buyers and sellers.
Jul 1–Sep 302026 close dates · Rancho Santa Margarita · SFR + condo/townhouse
Single-family residences65 closed sales · all Rancho Santa Margarita · Q3 2026
The quarter at a glance
Full asking was the median outcome
65 detached sales at a $1.39M median and $651 per square foot — closing at 100.0% of list in a 13-day median.
North and Central moved in ten days; Dove Canyon played the long game.
65 SFR sales at a $1.39M median — with the typical closing landing at exactly 100.0% of final list price. North (21 sales) and Central (18) both cleared in a 10-day median at par; Dove Canyon’s 14 sales carried a $1.69M median but needed 36 days and settled at 99.0%. September’s median climbed to $1.45M even as pace eased to 19 days. A documented 34% took a list-price reduction before closing; once final negotiation is included, 55% closed below their original asking price.
45%sold at or above original list price.
55%sold below original list price.
68%closed within 30 days; 14% needed more than 60 days.
Market explorer
Change the peer set before reading the number
Every control below updates the metrics and both charts. Small samples should guide questions, not settle pricing.
Price distribution
Closed sales by band
Time-to-market mix
Closed sales by DOM bucket
Month by month
September priced highest as pace eased
September’s $1.45M median was the quarter’s high; market time stretched from 10 to 19 days.
July 2026
$1.33M
Sales24
Median $/sf$669
Median DOM10
Sale / list99.6%
August 2026
$1.4M
Sales20
Median $/sf$644
Median DOM14
Sale / list100.0%
September 2026
$1.45M
Sales21
Median $/sf$610
Median DOM19
Sale / list100.0%
Median sold price
September set the price high.
Median price per square foot
Per-foot value eased as larger homes dominated September.
Median days on market
Market time nearly doubled from July to September.
Median sale-to-list ratio
At par all quarter — 100.0% in August and September.
+8.9%median price, July to September
−8.8%median $/sf, July to September
+9 daysmedian market time, July to September
Price ladder
Two bands carried the market
The under-$1.25M and $1.6M–$2M bands combined for 40 of 65 sales.
Under $1.25M
Sales22
Median $/sf$701
Median DOM12
Median 100.0% of list. The deepest band — and full asking at a 12-day median.
$1.25M–$1.4M
Sales11
Median $/sf$680
Median DOM10
Median 99.6% of list. The fastest band at 10 days.
$1.4M–$1.6M
Sales13
Median $/sf$577
Median DOM16
Median 100.0% of list. Par was the median outcome.
$1.6M–$2M
Sales18
Median $/sf$611
Median DOM30
Median 99.6% of list. The slowest band at 30 days — premium pricing needs patience.
$2M+
Sales1
Median $/sf$687
Median DOM0
Median 99.5% of list. A single sale — direction only, not a benchmark.
Three focus subareas
Dove Canyon commands the premium; North and Central drive the volume
Dove Canyon’s $1.69M median tops the city, while North and Central each moved in a 10-day median at par.
Median price per square foot by subarea
Unadjusted medians; differences in home age, size, lot and condition are not controlled.
North
Sales21
Median price$1.2M
Median $/sf$706
Median DOM10
Sale / list100.0%
The volume leader — 21 sales at a 10-day median and par.
Range: $0.91M–$1.95M · 16 of 21 closed within 30 DOM
Central
Sales18
Median price$1.2M
Median $/sf$648
Median DOM10
Sale / list100.0%
Matching North on price and pace — 18 sales, same 10-day median.
Range: $0.79M–$1.62M · 12 of 18 closed within 30 DOM
Dove Canyon
Sales14
Median price$1.69M
Median $/sf$542
Median DOM36
Sale / list99.0%
The premium pocket: highest median price, but a 36-day median market time.
Range: $1.38M–$1.94M · 6 of 14 closed within 30 DOM
Decision lens
Turn the statistics into leverage
Market averages are context. A decision should be based on the smallest credible set of genuinely comparable homes.
For buyers
North and Central reward the prepared.39 combined sales at par and a 10-day median — hesitation costs.
Dove Canyon is the negotiation zone.36 days on market and a 99.0% ratio — the one place with breathing room.
September showed the ceiling.$1.45M median at a 19-day pace — late-quarter buyers paid more and waited longer.
The under-$1.25M band is the battlefield.22 of 65 sales at par — this is where competition concentrates.
For sellers
Price to the 100.0% line.Full asking was literally the median outcome — accurate launches get rewarded.
Ten days is the window in North and Central.That’s the median — price for the first two weeks.
Dove Canyon sellers: budget five weeks.A 36-day median — presentation and patience over price tests.
Avoid the reduction.34% of sellers cut their price before closing — pricing right initially beats chasing down.
63 condo and townhouse sales at a $668K median — 100.0% of list, a 26-day median pace.
Closed sales
63
52 condominiums and 11 townhouses
Median price
$668K
reported closed price
Median $ / sf
$622
unadjusted median
Median DOM
26
clean DaysOnMarket
Sale / list
100.0%
median vs. final list
At / above list
54%
34 of 63 sales
September thinned out — and the median followed.
Sixty-three attached sales at a $668K median and $622 per square foot — closing at 100.0% of list. But September managed only 10 sales and the median slid to $592,950, the quarter’s low. The $550K–$750K stretch carried 38 of 63 sales at par; townhouses ran $230K above condos at $860K.
32%sold at or above original list price.
68%sold below original list price.
57%closed within 30 days; 21% needed more than 60 days.
Condo month by month
August peaked; September thinned
August’s $689K median came with a 32-day pace; September managed just 10 sales at $592,950.
July 2026
$680K
Sales30
Median $/sf$631
Median DOM23
Sale / list99.5%
August 2026
$689K
Sales23
Median $/sf$621
Median DOM32
Sale / list100.0%
September 2026
$593K
Sales10
Median $/sf$594
Median DOM22
Sale / list99.7%
Median sold price
August led, then September fell on thin volume.
Median price per square foot
Per-foot value eased each month.
Median days on market
August took the longest at 32 days.
Median sale-to-list ratio
At par in August — 100.0%.
−12.8%median price, July to September
−5.8%median $/sf, July to September
−0 daysmedian market time, July to September
Condo price ladder
The middle two bands were the market
Thirty-eight of 63 sales fell between $550K and $750K, both at par.
Under $550K
Sales10
Median $/sf$672
Median DOM46
Median 99.6% of list. The most negotiable band at 99.6% — and the slowest at 46 days.
$550K–$650K
Sales19
Median $/sf$621
Median DOM19
Median 100.0% of list. The deepest band — par at a 19-day median.
$650K–$750K
Sales19
Median $/sf$626
Median DOM32
Median 100.0% of list. Firm pricing, slower clocks.
$750K–$900K
Sales7
Median $/sf$619
Median DOM36
Median 100.0% of list. The thinnest core band at a 36-day pace.
$900K+
Sales8
Median $/sf$633
Median DOM16
Median 101.0% of list. Above asking at the median — 101.0% — and the second-fastest at 16 days.
Two products, one market
Townhouses cost more per door, less per foot
Townhouses ran about $230K higher on median but $22 cheaper per square foot — more space for the money.
Unadjusted medians; differences in age, size, HOA, condition and product type are not controlled.
Condo decision lens
Price the product, not just the ZIP code
Attached-home value depends heavily on the immediate competing set: community, floor plan, HOA economics, condition, parking and view.
For condo buyers
The $550K–$750K stretch is the benchmark.38 of 63 sales at par — the deepest comp pool.
The $900K+ band surprised.101.0% of list at a 16-day median — premium attached moved fast.
September’s thin month is your comp.Only 10 sales at $592,950 — small samples cut both ways.
Townhouses are the step-up.$860K median vs $630K for condos — know which product you’re shopping.
For condo sellers
Price to the 100.0% line.Full asking was the median outcome — accurate launches get rewarded.
Under four weeks is normal.A 26-day median DOM — price for the opening stretch.
The $550K–$750K window is your comp.Deepest stretch at par — price against it, not the $900K+ tier.
Avoid the reduction.44% of sellers cut before closing — pricing right initially beats chasing down.
Property-type comparison
Condos cost less than half — and matched SFR firmness
These medians describe different housing products. The comparison is useful for budget and pace—not as a substitute for like-for-like valuation.
Single-family residences
Closed sales65
Median price$1.39M
Median $ / sf$651
Median DOM13 days
Sale / list100.0%
Condos & townhouses
Closed sales63
Median price$668K
Median $ / sf$622
Median DOM26 days
Sale / list100.0%
−$722Klower median purchase price
−$29lower median price per square foot
+13 dayslonger median market time
+0.0 pthigher median sale-to-list ratio
Methodology
Read both samples correctly
Universe: 65 records marked sold in Rancho Santa Margarita, with close/status-change dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Property mix in the supplied file: all 65 records are Single Family Residence (detached).
“Closed price” uses ClosePrice. Days on market uses the clean DaysOnMarket field for all 65 records—not cumulative DOM.
Sale-to-list ratio is ClosePrice ÷ ListPrice. A documented list-price reduction means ListPrice < OriginalListPrice (34% of records). Separately, 55% closed below original ask after including final negotiation.
Median is favored over average because a small number of high-end closings (maximum $2.01M) can skew the average.
This is a closed-sales snapshot, not a forecast or appraisal. It does not include active inventory or pending contracts, and it does not adjust for concessions, HOA, Mello-Roos, lot, condition or financing terms.
Condo/townhouse universe: 63 Rancho Santa Margarita records—52 condominiums and 11 townhouses—with close dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Price-band calculations use closed price, clean DaysOnMarket and final list price from the supplied row-level export. Subarea figures cover “R1 - Rancho Santa Margarita North” (21 SFR), “R2 - Rancho Santa Margarita Central” (18 SFR) and “DC - Dove Canyon” (14 SFR); smaller MLS areas (Robinson Ranch, Rancho Cielo, Las Flores, Walden, one unassigned) are included in citywide totals only.
A property-specific CMA should narrow by true competitive set before making a pricing or offer decision.
Sources: 3._Rancho_Santa_Margarita-SFR.csv (65 SFR records) and 3._Rancho_Santa_Margarita-Condo_Townhome.csv (63 condo/townhouse records), supplied for analysis on October 19, 2026. Calculations recomputed from 128 row-level closings.