A three-month read on price, pace, and neighborhood differences—built from 263 closed SFR and condo/townhouse sales, with practical implications for buyers and sellers.
The typical closing landed at 99.3% of final list price — and nearly half of buyers paid at or above asking.
Speed and competition defined the quarter.
The quarter’s median sale-to-list ratio was 99.3%, and 48% of homes closed at or above final list price — nearly double Irvine’s 26%. A documented 33% had a list-price reduction before closing; once final negotiation is included, 65% closed below their original asking price. September held firm at 98.4% of list with a 14-day median market time.
35%sold at or above original list price.
65%sold below original list price.
62%closed within 30 days; only 16% needed more than 60 days.
Market explorer
Change the peer set before reading the number
Every control below updates the metrics and both charts. Small samples should guide questions, not settle pricing.
Price distribution
Closed sales by band
Time-to-market mix
Closed sales by DOM bucket
Month by month
September held firm as volume eased
Median price eased from July’s peak while sale-to-list stayed near 100% and market time shortened to 14 days in September.
July 2026
$1.347M
Sales68
Median $/sf$670
Median DOM18
Sale / list100.0%
August 2026
$1.330M
Sales79
Median $/sf$639
Median DOM22
Sale / list99.2%
September 2026
$1.300M
Sales56
Median $/sf$690
Median DOM14
Sale / list98.4%
Median sold price
July peaked; September eased while pace quickened.
Median price per square foot
August dipped; September recovered.
Median days on market
September was the fastest month.
Median sale-to-list ratio
Sellers held near 100% all quarter.
−17.6%closed-sale count, July to September
+3.0%median $/sf, July to September
−4 daysmedian market time, July to September
Price ladder
Seven in ten sales closed under $1.5M
The under-$1.5M tier carried the quarter; the $1.5M–$2M tier was the fastest at an 11-day median.
Under $1.5M
Sales142
Median $/sf$659
Median DOM20
Median 99.3% of list. Median 99.3% of list. The quarter’s deepest pool — 70% of all SFR sales. Competition is fiercest here; pre-approval and clean terms matter most.
$1.5M–$2M
Sales45
Median $/sf$655
Median DOM11
Median 100.0% of list. Median 100.0% of list. The fastest tier at an 11-day median; well-priced homes drew competing offers.
$2M+
Sales16
Median $/sf$677
Median DOM17
Median 98.5% of list. Median 98.5% of list. Thin above $2M; property-specific details outweigh the broad benchmark.
Three focus subareas
South costs more; per-foot values stay tight
Median $/sf barely moves across subareas ($659–$666) — price differences are driven by home size, not location premiums per foot.
Median price per square foot by subarea
Unadjusted medians; differences in home age, size, lot and condition are not controlled.
Mission Viejo Central
Sales86
Median price$1.195M
Median $/sf$663
Median DOM23
Sale / list100.0%
The deepest sample of the three subareas. Slightly longer market time gave buyers the most breathing room in the city.
Range: $0.67M–$2.70M · 48 of 86 closed within 30 DOM
Mission Viejo North
Sales79
Median price$1.350M
Median $/sf$659
Median DOM16
Sale / list98.8%
The volume core — nearly four in ten city sales. Steady pace with the city’s lowest $/sf.
Range: $0.93M–$5.85M · 52 of 79 closed within 30 DOM
Mission Viejo South
Sales32
Median price$1.649M
Median $/sf$666
Median DOM16
Sale / list100.0%
The highest median price and the largest median footprint at 2,260 sf. Premium positioning held: full asking was the median outcome.
Range: $0.88M–$2.24M · 22 of 32 closed within 30 DOM
Decision lens
Turn the statistics into leverage
Market averages are context. A decision should be based on the smallest credible set of genuinely comparable homes.
For buyers
Move fast under $2M.187 of 203 SFR sales closed under $2M at a 99.3%+ median sale-to-list ratio. Have financing and inspection strategy ready before touring.
Expect to compete, not just to bid.Nearly half of homes sold at or above asking. Offer structure — terms, timing, flexibility — decides the close calls.
Compare size before $/sf.Subarea $/sf spans just $659–$666; South’s higher prices reflect larger homes (2,260 sf median), not a per-foot premium.
September rewarded decisiveness.A 14-day median DOM means hesitation costs negotiating leverage. Track new listings weekly.
For sellers
Price to the market on day one.A 99.3% sale-to-list ratio rewards accurate launches — yet 65% still closed below original ask after reductions and negotiation.
The first two weeks decide it.Median DOM was 17 days and 62% closed within 30. A weak launch pushes a home into the slower pool.
Avoid the reduction.One in three sellers cut their list price before closing. Pricing right initially beats chasing the market down.
Use subarea comps, not citywide ones.South’s $1.65M median versus Central’s $1.20M — the wrong peer set misprices by hundreds of thousands.
The typical attached closing hit 100.0% of list price — $575K below the SFR median — with 58% selling at or above asking.
Closed sales
60
46 condos · 14 townhouses
Median price
$735K
reported closed price
Median $ / sf
$599
unadjusted median
Median DOM
15
clean DaysOnMarket
Sale / list
100.0%
median vs. final list
At / above list
58%
35 of 60 sales
Demand outran even the SFR market.
Condos posted a 100.0% median sale-to-list ratio with 58% closing at or above final asking, and a 15-day median market time. September set the quarter’s price high at $775K, and the ratio never budged from 100% in any month.
42%sold at or above original list price.
58%sold below original list price.
62%closed within 30 days; only 13% needed more than 60 days.
Condo month by month
September set the price high
Median price climbed every month to $775K in September while sale-to-list never moved off 100%.
July 2026
$690K
Sales21
Median $/sf$595
Median DOM10
Sale / list100.0%
August 2026
$707K
Sales16
Median $/sf$624
Median DOM14
Sale / list100.0%
September 2026
$775K
Sales23
Median $/sf$595
Median DOM17
Sale / list100.0%
Median sold price
A steady climb — September set the high.
Median price per square foot
August led on per-foot value.
Median days on market
Quick all quarter; September took a touch longer.
Median sale-to-list ratio
A perfect 100% in every month.
+12.3%median price, July to September
0.0%median $/sf, July to September
+7 daysmedian market time, July to September
Condo price ladder
The middle three bands carried the market
Fifty of 60 sales closed between $625K and $1.1M — and four of five bands held a 100% median sale-to-list ratio.
Under $625K
Sales15
Median $/sf$619
Median DOM43
Median 100.0% of list. The slowest band at a 43-day median — patience separated the closings.
$625K–$750K
Sales18
Median $/sf$595
Median DOM12
Median 100.0% of list. The deepest and fastest band — a 12-day median.
$750K–$900K
Sales17
Median $/sf$571
Median DOM17
Median 100.0% of list. Near the top of the volume with steady pacing.
$900K–$1.1M
Sales8
Median $/sf$520
Median DOM20
Median 97.9% of list. The only band below 100% — room opened up at the top.
$1.1M+
Sales2
Median $/sf$744
Median DOM24
Median 100.0% of list. Just two sales — direction only, not a benchmark.
Three condo subareas
North carried the volume; Central offered the value
North’s 32 sales give the most reliable read. Central’s $539 $/sf is the clear value signal — with a softer 97.8% sale-to-list ratio.
Unadjusted medians; differences in age, size, HOA, condition and product type are not controlled.
Condo decision lens
Price the product, not just the ZIP code
Attached-home value depends heavily on the immediate competing set: community, floor plan, HOA economics, condition, parking and view.
For condo buyers
Bring your strongest offer first.With 58% closing at or above asking and a 100% median sale-to-list ratio, there is no room for low opening bids on well-priced homes.
Fish where the fish are.North’s 32 sales offer the deepest comp pool — the best place to calibrate value before offering elsewhere.
Underwrite the monthly, not just the price.Compare dues, reserves, special assessments and tax structure alongside price; the same price can produce a very different monthly commitment.
Don’t wait for a dip that isn’t coming.Median price rose every month this quarter. Waiting cost buyers roughly $85K from July to September.
For condo sellers
Launch at market — the market pays it.A 100% median sale-to-list ratio means accurate pricing gets rewarded; testing high just burns the fast first weeks.
Fifteen days is the window.That’s the median DOM. Price and present for the first two weeks, when buyer attention peaks.
Know your subarea’s number.North’s $770K median versus Central’s $685K — a citywide average misleads in both directions.
Condition is the tiebreaker.At 100% of list, presentation and HOA health decide which listings earn the premium.
Property-type comparison
Condos cost less and move faster — with even firmer pricing
These medians describe different housing products. The comparison is useful for budget and pace—not as a substitute for like-for-like valuation.
Single-family residences
Closed sales203
Median price$1.31M
Median $ / sf$659
Median DOM17 days
Sale / list99.3%
Condos & townhouses
Closed sales60
Median price$735K
Median $ / sf$599
Median DOM15 days
Sale / list100.0%
−$575Klower median purchase price
−$60lower median price per square foot
−2 daysshorter median market time
+0.7 pthigher median sale-to-list ratio
Methodology
Read both samples correctly
Universe: 203 records marked sold in Mission Viejo, with close/status-change dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Property mix in the supplied file: all 203 records are Single Family Residence (detached).
“Closed price” uses ClosePrice. Days on market uses the clean DaysOnMarket field for all 203 records—not cumulative DOM.
Sale-to-list ratio is ClosePrice ÷ ListPrice. A documented list-price reduction means ListPrice < OriginalListPrice (33% of records). Separately, 65% closed below original ask after including final negotiation.
Median is favored over average because a small number of high-end closings (maximum $5.85M) materially skew the average upward.
This is a closed-sales snapshot, not a forecast or appraisal. It does not include active inventory or pending contracts, and it does not adjust for concessions, HOA, Mello-Roos, lot, condition or financing terms.
Condo/townhouse universe: 60 Mission Viejo records—46 condominiums and 14 townhouses—with close dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Condo price-band calculations use closed price, clean DaysOnMarket and final list price from the supplied row-level export. The three-subarea table uses the MLS-area field.
MLS-area comparisons with very small samples can swing sharply. A property-specific CMA should narrow by true competitive set before making a pricing or offer decision.
Sources: Single_Family_Residence_MV_3rd.csv (203 SFR records) and Condo_and_townhouse_MV_3rd.csv (60 condo/townhouse records), supplied for analysis on October 8, 2026. Calculations recomputed from 263 row-level closings.