A three-month read on price, pace, and product differences—built from 98 closed SFR and condo/townhouse sales, with practical implications for buyers and sellers.
Just 26 detached sales — read the medians as direction, not precision — at $731 per square foot, second only to Irvine.
Small sample, clear signal: sellers held their ground.
Twenty-six SFR sales make this the thinnest detached market of the four cities — treat every median as direction rather than precision. Even so, the 98.6% sale-to-list ratio and $731 per square foot show a firm market. July was the sweet spot: a 100.1% median sale-to-list ratio at a 7-day pace. A documented 19% had a list-price reduction before closing; once final negotiation is included, 65% closed below their original asking price.
35%sold at or above original list price.
65%sold below original list price.
77%closed within 30 days — the fastest first-month share of any city.
Market explorer
Change the peer set before reading the number
Every control below updates the metrics and both charts. Small samples should guide questions, not settle pricing.
Price distribution
Closed sales by band
Time-to-market mix
Closed sales by DOM bucket
Month by month
July was fastest; August priciest
July cleared above asking in a week on a small sample; August’s median price led the quarter at a slower pace.
July 2026
$1.345M
Sales7
Median $/sf$759
Median DOM7
Sale / list100.1%
August 2026
$1.810M
Sales10
Median $/sf$724
Median DOM21
Sale / list97.9%
September 2026
$1.620M
Sales9
Median $/sf$734
Median DOM20
Sale / list99.1%
Median sold price
August was priciest on a thin monthly sample.
Median price per square foot
July led on per-foot value.
Median days on market
July moved in a week; the pace settled after.
Median sale-to-list ratio
July cleared above asking on median.
+28.6%closed-sale count, July to September
−3.3%median $/sf, July to September
+13 daysmedian market time, July to September
Price ladder
The middle two tiers were the market
Twenty of 26 sales fell between $1.25M and $2.5M; the entry tier moved fastest and the top tier barely registered.
Under $1.25M
Sales5
Median $/sf$674
Median DOM7
Median 96.2% of list. Median 96.2% of list. Fastest tier at a 7-day median — but the softest ratio. Entry-level sold quickly with room to negotiate.
$1.25M–$1.75M
Sales12
Median $/sf$735
Median DOM20
Median 98.8% of list. Median 98.8% of list. Nearly half of all SFR sales — the market’s center of gravity.
$1.75M–$2.5M
Sales8
Median $/sf$749
Median DOM16
Median 98.9% of list. Median 98.9% of list. Highest $/sf of any tier — larger homes held value best.
$2.5M+
Sales1
Median $/sf$720
Median DOM34
Median 98.1% of list. Median 98.1% of list. A single sale — direction only, not a benchmark.
Bedroom-count breakdown
Four bedrooms defined the market
No subarea splits exist for Aliso Viejo — so bedroom count is the useful cut. Per-foot value barely moved with size.
Median price per square foot by bedroom count
Per-foot value barely moved with size — Aliso Viejo prices its bedrooms evenly. Small samples: read as direction.
3 bedrooms
Sales8
Median price$1.298M
Median $/sf$737
Median DOM19
Sale / list99.3%
The entry tier: quickest relative pace at a 99.3% median sale-to-list ratio.
Range: $0.62M–$1.70M · 5 of 8 closed within 30 DOM
4 bedrooms
Sales12
Median price$1.623M
Median $/sf$735
Median DOM10
Sale / list99.1%
The market’s core — nearly half of all SFR sales at a 10-day median.
Range: $1.10M–$2.05M · 11 of 12 closed within 30 DOM
5 bedrooms
Sales5
Median price$2.140M
Median $/sf$729
Median DOM26
Sale / list97.8%
The step-up tier: $2.14M median at a 26-day pace and the softest ratio.
Range: $1.93M–$2.55M · 3 of 5 closed within 30 DOM
Decision lens
Turn the statistics into leverage
Market averages are context. A decision should be based on the smallest credible set of genuinely comparable homes.
For buyers
Small sample, big swings — widen your comps.Twenty-six sales across three months means one month doesn’t make a trend. Price from true comparables, not the citywide median.
The $1.25M–$1.75M tier is the market.Twelve of 26 sales at a 98.8% sale-to-list ratio — this is where competition concentrates.
Four bedrooms move fastest.A 10-day median DOM — the deepest buyer pool and the quickest turns.
Under $1.25M sold in a week — with room.Seven days on market but a 96.2% ratio: speed plus negotiating space.
For sellers
July proved the ceiling: 100.1%.Well-priced launches cleared above asking at a 7-day pace — aim for that window.
Four-bed is the sweet spot.Nearly half of all SFR sales; price and present for that buyer.
Don’t overread the median.With 26 sales, the citywide number is context — your pricing lives or dies on the nearest true comps.
Two-and-a-half weeks is normal.A 19-day median DOM means a month on market isn’t a signal to panic.
Aliso Viejo is the only city where attached sales outnumbered detached nearly 3-to-1 — at an $840K median.
Closed sales
72
59 condominiums and 13 townhouses
Median price
$840K
reported closed price
Median $ / sf
$652
unadjusted median
Median DOM
22
clean DaysOnMarket
Sale / list
98.9%
median vs. final list
At / above list
38%
27 of 72 sales
The condo market is the market here.
Seventy-two attached sales against 26 detached — no other city tilts this far toward condos and townhouses. July was the peak at $900K and a 13-day pace; August and September settled near $800K at roughly four weeks. Pricing discipline held throughout at a 98.9% median sale-to-list ratio, with 38% closing at or above asking.
35%sold at or above original list price.
65%sold below original list price.
62%closed within 30 days; 18% needed more than 60 days.
Condo month by month
July peaked; the pace settled after
July combined the highest median with the fastest pace; the sale-to-list ratio stayed firm through September.
July 2026
$900K
Sales25
Median $/sf$681
Median DOM13
Sale / list99.3%
August 2026
$800K
Sales27
Median $/sf$653
Median DOM29
Sale / list98.3%
September 2026
$794K
Sales20
Median $/sf$631
Median DOM28
Sale / list98.7%
Median sold price
July peaked; August and September settled lower.
Median price per square foot
Eased after July’s high.
Median days on market
July’s 13-day pace was the quarter’s fastest.
Median sale-to-list ratio
Firm all quarter, peaking in July.
−11.8%median price, July to September
−7.3%median $/sf, July to September
+15 daysmedian market time, July to September
Condo price ladder
The $700K–$850K band led the market
Twenty-five of 72 sales fell in a single band, and every band held at least 98.1% of list.
Under $700K
Sales11
Median $/sf$668
Median DOM22
Median 98.1% of list. Highest $/sf of the bands — smaller units, fuller per-foot pricing.
$700K–$850K
Sales25
Median $/sf$629
Median DOM29
Median 99.2% of list. The deepest comp pool in the city’s condo market.
$850K–$1M
Sales16
Median $/sf$608
Median DOM20
Median 99.2% of list. Quick 20-day median with firm pricing.
$1M–$1.2M
Sales14
Median $/sf$692
Median DOM21
Median 98.7% of list. Larger units carried a per-foot premium.
$1.2M+
Sales6
Median $/sf$695
Median DOM27
Median 98.7% of list. Small and steady at the top.
Two products, one market
Condos and townhouses priced neck-and-neck
Townhouses cost more overall but less per foot — more space for the money. Both sold at the same pace with the same firmness.
Unadjusted medians; differences in age, size, HOA, condition and product type are not controlled.
Condo decision lens
Price the product, not just the ZIP code
Attached-home value depends heavily on the immediate competing set: community, floor plan, HOA economics, condition, parking and view.
For condo buyers
This is a condo market first.Seventy-two of 98 city sales were attached — benchmark against condos and townhouses, not detached homes.
2-bed versus 3-bed is a $256K decision.Medians of $749K and $1.005M — know which product you’re shopping before you fall in love.
July’s pace is gone; use that.Market time doubled from 13 to 28 days after July — later buyers held more leverage.
Townhouse means more space per dollar.$620 versus $668 per square foot — compare on monthly cost, not just price.
For condo sellers
Price to the 98.9% line.The market pays near-asking for accurate launches; testing high burns the slower weeks.
Three weeks is the window.A 22-day median DOM — price and present for the opening stretch.
2-bedrooms are the volume.Thirty-five of 72 sales — the deepest buyer pool in the city.
Condition separates at this density.Attached competition is head-to-head; presentation decides the close calls.
Property-type comparison
Condos: the volume play at half the price
These medians describe different housing products. The comparison is useful for budget and pace—not as a substitute for like-for-like valuation.
Single-family residences
Closed sales26
Median price$1.63M
Median $ / sf$731
Median DOM19 days
Sale / list98.6%
Condos & townhouses
Closed sales72
Median price$840K
Median $ / sf$652
Median DOM22 days
Sale / list98.9%
−$790Klower median purchase price
−$79lower median price per square foot
+3 dayslonger median market time
+0.3 pthigher median sale-to-list ratio
Methodology
Read both samples correctly
Universe: 26 records marked sold in Aliso Viejo, with close/status-change dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Property mix in the supplied file: all 26 records are Single Family Residence (detached). With only 26 sales, every median should be read as direction rather than precision.
“Closed price” uses ClosePrice. Days on market uses the clean DaysOnMarket field for all 26 records—not cumulative DOM.
Sale-to-list ratio is ClosePrice ÷ ListPrice. A documented list-price reduction means ListPrice < OriginalListPrice (19% of records). Separately, 65% closed below original ask after including final negotiation.
Median is favored over average because a small number of high-end closings (maximum $2.55M) can skew the average on a 26-record sample.
This is a closed-sales snapshot, not a forecast or appraisal. It does not include active inventory or pending contracts, and it does not adjust for concessions, HOA, Mello-Roos, lot, condition or financing terms.
Condo/townhouse universe: 72 Aliso Viejo records—59 condominiums and 13 townhouses—with close dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Price-band calculations use closed price, clean DaysOnMarket and final list price from the supplied row-level export. No subarea breakdown is published because the MLS-area field does not split Aliso Viejo into neighborhoods in this export; bedroom count is used instead.
A property-specific CMA should narrow by true competitive set before making a pricing or offer decision.
Sources: Single_Family_Residence_Aliso_viejo_3rd.csv (26 SFR records) and Condo_and_townhouse_Aliso_Viejo_3rd.csv (72 condo/townhouse records), supplied for analysis on October 8, 2026. Calculations recomputed from 98 row-level closings.