A three-month read on price, pace, and neighborhood differences—built from 158 closed SFR and condo/townhouse sales, with practical implications for buyers and sellers.
Jul 1–Sep 302026 close dates · Lake Forest · SFR + condo/townhouse
Single-family residences103 closed sales · all Lake Forest · Q3 2026
The quarter at a glance
South Lake Forest set the pace in a firm seller’s market
The typical closing landed at 98.9% of final list price — and South alone produced nearly half the city’s sales.
Volume concentrated where speed was highest.
The quarter’s median sale-to-list ratio was 98.9%, with 37% of homes closing at or above final list price. Lake Forest South drove the market — 48 of 103 sales at a 9-day median DOM. A documented 29% had a list-price reduction before closing; once final negotiation is included, 67% closed below their original asking price. September cooled to 97.8% of list with a 24-day median market time.
33%sold at or above original list price.
67%sold below original list price.
63%closed within 30 days; 19% needed more than 60 days.
Market explorer
Change the peer set before reading the number
Every control below updates the metrics and both charts. Small samples should guide questions, not settle pricing.
Price distribution
Closed sales by band
Time-to-market mix
Closed sales by DOM bucket
Month by month
August peaked; September took longer
August posted the quarter’s highest median at a 10-day pace; September’s median eased and market time more than doubled.
July 2026
$1.395M
Sales39
Median $/sf$667
Median DOM11
Sale / list99.3%
August 2026
$1.452M
Sales34
Median $/sf$642
Median DOM10
Sale / list99.1%
September 2026
$1.351M
Sales30
Median $/sf$670
Median DOM24
Sale / list97.8%
Median sold price
August peaked; September pulled back.
Median price per square foot
Essentially flat across the quarter.
Median days on market
September took more than twice as long as August.
Median sale-to-list ratio
September gave buyers the most room.
−23.1%closed-sale count, July to September
+0.4%median $/sf, July to September
+13 daysmedian market time, July to September
Price ladder
The $1M–$1.5M tier carried the market
More than half of all SFR sales closed in one tier; above $2M the market behaved very differently.
Under $1M
Sales5
Median $/sf$735
Median DOM14
Median 99.1% of list. Median 99.1% of list. Entry-level SFR is scarce in Lake Forest — just 5 sales all quarter.
$1M–$1.5M
Sales58
Median $/sf$663
Median DOM15
Median 99.2% of list. Median 99.2% of list. The competitive core: 56% of all SFR sales. Pre-approval and clean terms matter most.
$1.5M–$2M
Sales28
Median $/sf$632
Median DOM16
Median 98.5% of list. Median 98.5% of list. Solid depth with slightly softer pricing than the core tier.
$2M+
Sales12
Median $/sf$703
Median DOM39
Median 95.8% of list. Median 95.8% of list. A different market: 39-day median and the quarter’s lowest sale-to-list ratio.
Five focus subareas
Baker Ranch commands the premium; South drives the volume
Baker Ranch’s $756 $/sf tops the city while Portola Hills offers the most space per dollar at $600 $/sf.
Median price per square foot by subarea
Unadjusted medians; differences in home age, size, lot and condition are not controlled.
Lake Forest South
Sales48
Median price$1.320M
Median $/sf$668
Median DOM9
Sale / list99.5%
Nearly half the city’s sales at a 9-day median — the market’s engine room.
Range: $0.99M–$2.25M · 38 of 48 closed within 30 DOM
Lake Forest North
Sales19
Median price$1.350M
Median $/sf$638
Median DOM16
Sale / list97.7%
Steady middle-market pace; the second-deepest sample in the city.
Range: $0.94M–$2.49M · 11 of 19 closed within 30 DOM
Foothill Ranch
Sales15
Median price$1.425M
Median $/sf$648
Median DOM13
Sale / list100.0%
A 100.0% median sale-to-list ratio — full asking was the median outcome here.
Range: $1.09M–$1.80M · 9 of 15 closed within 30 DOM
Baker Ranch
Sales8
Median price$2.025M
Median $/sf$756
Median DOM48
Sale / list96.1%
The premium pocket: highest $/sf in the city at $756, but a 48-day median market time.
Range: $1.35M–$3.26M · 2 of 8 closed within 30 DOM
Portola Hills
Sales6
Median price$1.705M
Median $/sf$600
Median DOM22
Sale / list97.4%
Largest homes of the five areas (3,423 sf median) at the lowest $/sf — space per dollar.
Range: $0.97M–$2.79M · 3 of 6 closed within 30 DOM
Decision lens
Turn the statistics into leverage
Market averages are context. A decision should be based on the smallest credible set of genuinely comparable homes.
For buyers
South is where the action is.48 of 103 sales closed in Lake Forest South at a 9-day median. Be fully ready before touring there.
The $1M–$1.5M tier is the battlefield.56% of SFR sales and a 99.2% sale-to-list ratio — this is where competition concentrates.
Baker Ranch plays by different rules.A $756 $/sf premium with a 48-day median market time. Negotiate patience, not just price.
September showed patience pays.A 24-day median and 97.8% sale-to-list ratio — late-quarter buyers found the most room.
For sellers
Launch at 100% or chase.Foothill Ranch proved full-ask launches work — yet 29% of sellers still cut their price before closing.
Two weeks is the window.Median DOM was 15 days and 63% closed within 30. Price for the opening fortnight.
South’s speed is your comp, not Baker Ranch’s price.Subarea medians span $1.32M to $2.03M — the wrong peer set misprices by hundreds of thousands.
Above $2M, expect a longer runway.39-day median DOM and a 95.8% sale-to-list ratio demand premium presentation and patience.
The typical attached closing hit 100.0% of list — even as the median price fell every month of the quarter.
Closed sales
55
42 condominiums and 13 townhouses
Median price
$690K
reported closed price
Median $ / sf
$571
unadjusted median
Median DOM
29
clean DaysOnMarket
Sale / list
100.0%
median vs. final list
At / above list
53%
29 of 55 sales
A split personality: softer prices, unmoved resolve.
Median price slid from $780K in July to $587K in September while market time stretched from 16 to 40 days — yet the sale-to-list ratio never left 100%, and 53% still closed at or above asking. The mix shifted toward smaller, cheaper units rather than discounting; sellers who priced to the new mix were rewarded in full.
35%sold at or above original list price.
65%sold below original list price.
51%closed within 30 days; 25% needed more than 60 days.
Condo month by month
September’s median fell; the ratio didn’t
Each month’s median price stepped down while sale-to-list stayed glued to 100% — the market repriced through mix, not markdowns.
July 2026
$780K
Sales20
Median $/sf$577
Median DOM16
Sale / list100.0%
August 2026
$745K
Sales17
Median $/sf$590
Median DOM34
Sale / list100.0%
September 2026
$587K
Sales18
Median $/sf$553
Median DOM40
Sale / list99.7%
Median sold price
A steady slide — September was the low.
Median price per square foot
Eased alongside the median price.
Median days on market
Market time more than doubled by September.
Median sale-to-list ratio
Sellers held the line at 100% anyway.
−24.7%median price, July to September
−4.2%median $/sf, July to September
+24 daysmedian market time, July to September
Condo price ladder
The $550K–$900K stretch was the core
Thirty-one of 55 sales fell between $550K and $900K. The fastest band moved in 12 days; the slowest took nearly two months.
Under $550K
Sales12
Median $/sf$527
Median DOM59
Median 99.1% of list. Lowest $/sf but the slowest band at 59 days — condition and carrying costs matter most here.
$550K–$700K
Sales16
Median $/sf$576
Median DOM50
Median 100.0% of list. The deepest band held full asking despite a 50-day median.
$700K–$900K
Sales15
Median $/sf$570
Median DOM12
Median 100.0% of list. The fastest band — well-priced homes moved in under two weeks.
$900K–$1.1M
Sales9
Median $/sf$628
Median DOM18
Median 99.1% of list. Highest $/sf of any band with a quick 18-day median.
$1.1M+
Sales3
Median $/sf$615
Median DOM60
Median 97.7% of list. Thin and slow — property-specific details outweigh the benchmark.
Five condo subareas
North had the volume; Baker Ranch the price tag
North’s 25 sales give the most reliable read. Baker Ranch condos medaled at $1.08M — a different buyer pool entirely.
Unadjusted medians; differences in age, size, HOA, condition and product type are not controlled.
Condo decision lens
Price the product, not just the ZIP code
Attached-home value depends heavily on the immediate competing set: community, floor plan, HOA economics, condition, parking and view.
For condo buyers
The price drop is a mix shift, not a sale.Medians fell as smaller, cheaper units dominated — well-priced homes still commanded 100% of asking.
North is the benchmark.25 of 55 sales — the deepest comp pool for calibrating value before offering elsewhere.
Time is on your side late in the quarter.September’s 40-day median gave buyers the most negotiating room of the quarter.
Townhouse versus condo matters.Compare within the product type; blended medians hide real differences in space and dues.
For condo sellers
Hold firm — the market pays 100%.The ratio never budged all quarter. Accurate pricing gets rewarded; testing high burns the slower weeks.
Beat the 29-day median.Market time stretched as the quarter wore on — first-month presentation matters more than ever.
Price against North, not Baker Ranch.$635K versus $1.08M medians — a citywide average misleads in both directions.
Smaller units moved the median.Position by size and price band, not by the citywide number.
Property-type comparison
Half the price, twice the patience
These medians describe different housing products. The comparison is useful for budget and pace—not as a substitute for like-for-like valuation.
Single-family residences
Closed sales103
Median price$1.38M
Median $ / sf$659
Median DOM15 days
Sale / list98.9%
Condos & townhouses
Closed sales55
Median price$690K
Median $ / sf$571
Median DOM29 days
Sale / list100.0%
−$685Klower median purchase price
−$88lower median price per square foot
+14 dayslonger median market time
+1.1 pthigher median sale-to-list ratio
Methodology
Read both samples correctly
Universe: 103 records marked sold in Lake Forest, with close/status-change dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Property mix in the supplied file: all 103 records are Single Family Residence (detached).
“Closed price” uses ClosePrice. Days on market uses the clean DaysOnMarket field for all 103 records—not cumulative DOM.
Sale-to-list ratio is ClosePrice ÷ ListPrice. A documented list-price reduction means ListPrice < OriginalListPrice (29% of records). Separately, 67% closed below original ask after including final negotiation.
Median is favored over average because a small number of high-end closings (maximum near $5.9M) materially skew the average upward.
This is a closed-sales snapshot, not a forecast or appraisal. It does not include active inventory or pending contracts, and it does not adjust for concessions, HOA, Mello-Roos, lot, condition or financing terms.
Condo/townhouse universe: 55 Lake Forest records—42 condominiums and 13 townhouses—with close dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Price-band calculations use closed price, clean DaysOnMarket and final list price from the supplied row-level export. The five-subarea table uses the MLS-area field.
MLS-area comparisons with very small samples can swing sharply. A property-specific CMA should narrow by true competitive set before making a pricing or offer decision.
Sources: Single_Family_Residence_Lake_Forest_3rd.csv (103 SFR records) and Single_Condo_and_Townhome_Lake_Forest_3rd.csv (55 condo/townhouse records), supplied for analysis on October 8, 2026. Calculations recomputed from 158 row-level closings.