A three-month read on price, pace, and neighborhood differences—built from 538 closed SFR and condo/townhouse sales, with practical implications for buyers and sellers.
Single-family residences234 closed sales · all Irvine · Q3 2026
The quarter at a glance
A balanced headline hides a price-sensitive market
The typical closing landed at 97.2% of final list price, while luxury outliers still pulled average pricing above the median.
Price sensitivity is the clearest signal.
The quarter’s median sale-to-list ratio was 97.2%. Only 26% of homes closed at or above final list price. A documented 36% had a list-price reduction before closing; once final negotiation is included, 79% closed below their original asking price. September softened further to 96.7% of list and 38 days on market.
21%sold at or above original list price.
79%sold below original list price.
52%closed within 30 days; another 22% needed more than 60 days.
Market explorer
Change the peer set before reading the number
Every control below updates the metrics and both charts. Small samples should guide questions, not settle pricing.
Price distribution
Closed sales by band
Time-to-market mix
Closed sales by DOM bucket
Month by month
September gave buyers more breathing room
Prices did not move in one direction: August posted the quarter’s highest median, while September combined fewer closings with longer market time.
July 2026
$2.074M
Sales82
Median $/sf$902
Median DOM29
Sale / list97.6%
August 2026
$2.168M
Sales83
Median $/sf$848
Median DOM27
Sale / list97.2%
September 2026
$2.037M
Sales69
Median $/sf$829
Median DOM38
Sale / list96.7%
Median sold price
August peaked before a September pullback.
Median price per square foot
A steady decline across the three close months.
Median days on market
September required more time to clear.
Median sale-to-list ratio
Buyer negotiating room widened modestly.
−15.9%closed-sale count, July to September
−8.0%median $/sf, July to September
+9 daysmedian market time, July to September
Price ladder
Speed changes sharply above $3 million
The under-$1.5M tier had a 14-day median; the $5M-plus tier took 60 days. Strategy should change with the bracket.
Under $1.5M
Sales51
Median $/sf$816
Median DOM14
Median 98.6% of list. Most time-sensitive tier; clean financing and quick diligence matter.
$1.5M–$2M
Sales56
Median $/sf$807
Median DOM24
Median 97.4% of list. Condition and location create a wider negotiation range.
$2M–$3M
Sales77
Median $/sf$893
Median DOM28
Median 96.7% of list. The quarter’s deepest pool offers the strongest peer comp set.
$3M–$5M
Sales37
Median $/sf$1,029
Median DOM40
Median 95.9% of list. Premium buyers are selective; finish, lot and upgrades need explicit support.
$5M+
Sales13
Median $/sf$1,301
Median DOM60
Median 95.3% of list. Thin, property-specific market; broad Irvine medians are not decision-grade here.
Four focus villages
Price per foot and absolute price tell different stories
These are descriptive medians, not adjusted valuations. Great Park’s larger median home size helps explain its lower $/sf versus Turtle Rock.
Median price per square foot by village
The line compares unadjusted medians; it does not control for home age, lot, condition or size.
Great Park
Sales13
Median price$3.10M
Median $/sf$752
Median DOM47
Sale / list95.1%
Largest median footprint of the four at 3,715 sf. Absolute prices are high, but the per-foot benchmark is lower than the other focus villages.
Range: $1.38M–$4.20M · 6 of 13 exceeded 60 DOM
Portola Springs
Sales17
Median price$2.60M
Median $/sf$847
Median DOM62
Sale / list94.1%
The longest median market time of the focus set. Buyers had the most time leverage here; sellers need sharper price-to-condition alignment.
Range: $1.47M–$3.65M · 9 of 17 exceeded 60 DOM
Orchard Hills
Sales25
Median price$3.34M
Median $/sf$988
Median DOM33
Sale / list95.4%
The highest median price and deepest sample among the four. Its 3,400 sf median size supports a more reliable large-home peer set.
Range: $2.18M–$6.40M · 11 of 25 closed within 30 DOM
Turtle Rock
Sales20
Median price$2.91M
Median $/sf$1,188
Median DOM36
Sale / list97.0%
The highest median $/sf of the focus set, paired with the smallest median footprint at 2,415 sf. Buyers should not compare it to newer, larger homes on $/sf alone.
Range: $2.00M–$4.97M · 7 of 20 closed within 14 DOM
Decision lens
Turn the statistics into leverage
Market averages are context. A decision should be based on the smallest credible set of genuinely comparable homes.
For buyers
Prepare early below $1.5M.The median was 14 DOM in this tier. Underwriting, insurance review and inspection strategy should be ready before the right home appears.
Use time as leverage above $3M.Median DOM rose to 40 days at $3M–$5M and 60 days above $5M; median sale-to-list fell to 95.9% and 95.3%, respectively.
Compare within the village and form.Attached SFR records had a $1.375M median; detached records had a $2.20M median. Blending them can create a misleading anchor.
Audit the $/sf premium.View, lot, renovation quality, street, age and floor plan can all change the number. Treat $/sf as a screening tool, not the offer formula.
For sellers
Win the first 30 days.Just over half of closings showed 30 DOM or less, while 79% closed below original ask. A weak launch can push a home into the slower pool.
Price to your actual bracket.Under $1.5M achieved a 98.6% median sale-to-list ratio versus 95.3% above $5M. Use bracket-specific exposure time and buyer depth.
Lead with supported differentiators.In slower premium segments, quantify upgrades, lot usability and location advantages instead of relying on a citywide appreciation story.
Use median, then explain the exceptions.The average price was $452K above the median because of estate closings. An outlier is evidence only when the subject truly competes with it.
A lower entry point, with firm sale-to-list performance
The typical attached-property closing was $1.17M—$930K below the SFR median—while sellers retained a 98.1% median sale-to-list ratio.
Closed sales
304
277 condos · 27 townhouses
Median price
$1.17M
reported closed price
Median $ / sf
$729
unadjusted median
Median DOM
34
clean DaysOnMarket
Sale / list
98.1%
median vs. final list
At / above list
25%
76 of 304 sales
Demand held, but September lost momentum.
Median $/sf eased from $745 in July to $718 in September. After a quick 26-day August, median market time returned to 37 days in September. Sale-to-list stayed near 98%, suggesting orderly negotiation rather than a sharp reset.
46%closed within 30 days; buyers still need to be ready for well-positioned homes.
18%sold at or above original list price.
82%sold below original list price.
43%of all condo/townhouse sales closed from $1M to $1.5M—the quarter’s deepest price band.
Condo month by month
August strengthened; September gave some back
August paired the highest median price with the shortest market time and strongest sale-to-list ratio. September kept pricing above July, but activity and $/sf softened.
July 2026
$1.085M
Sales112
Median $/sf$745
Median DOM40
Sale / list97.7%
August 2026
$1.215M
Sales88
Median $/sf$737
Median DOM26
Sale / list98.4%
September 2026
$1.185M
Sales104
Median $/sf$718
Median DOM37
Sale / list98.0%
Median sold price
August peaked; September remained above July.
Median price per square foot
A steady three-month decline.
Median days on market
August moved quickly; September normalized.
Median sale-to-list ratio
Seller retention peaked in August.
−7.1%closed-sale count, July to September
−3.6%median $/sf, July to September
+9.2%median price, July to September
Condo price ladder
The $1M–$1.5M band carried the market
That middle band represented 43% of condo/townhouse closings. The $2M-plus tier was small and quick, but its lower sale-to-list ratio points to more negotiation.
Under $750K
Sales47
Median $/sf$726
Median DOM40
Median 98.0% of list. Lowest entry tier, but not the fastest; condition and HOA profile can separate winners.
$750K–$1M
Sales57
Median $/sf$723
Median DOM36
Median 98.4% of list—the strongest ratio across the five bands, with a broad first-time and move-down buyer pool.
$1M–$1.5M
Sales131
Median $/sf$700
Median DOM33
Median 98.1% of list. The deepest comp pool in the condo market, with 43% of all quarter sales.
$1.5M–$2M
Sales55
Median $/sf$795
Median DOM30
Median 97.8% of list. Higher per-foot value and slightly faster pace reward close product matching.
$2M+
Sales14
Median $/sf$847
Median DOM27
Median 96.7% of list. Fastest median pace, but only 14 sales; property-specific details outweigh the broad benchmark.
Four condo focus villages
Inventory depth changes the confidence level
Great Park supplies the largest sample. Orchard Hills and Turtle Rock have only five and six sales, so their medians should be treated as directional.
Unadjusted medians; differences in age, size, HOA, condition and product type are not controlled.
Condo decision lens
Price the product, not just the ZIP code
Attached-home value depends heavily on the immediate competing set: community, floor plan, HOA economics, condition, parking and view.
For condo buyers
Use the $1M–$1.5M pool as your benchmark.With 131 sales, it offers the deepest comp set. Narrow further by community, floor plan, age and HOA before setting an offer.
Separate price from monthly carrying cost.Compare dues, included services, special assessments and tax structure alongside the purchase price; the same price can produce a very different monthly commitment.
Read speed and leverage together.The $2M-plus tier moved in a 27-day median yet closed at 96.7% of list. A polished property can move quickly and still leave room below ask.
Do not overread tiny village samples.Orchard Hills and Turtle Rock had only five and six sales. Use their medians as a starting point, then inspect the closest actual matches.
For condo sellers
Launch against the immediate competition.A 34-day market median means the first month matters. Price against the same community and product—not a citywide condo average.
Respect September’s softer $/sf.The median moved from $745 in July to $718 in September, while DOM rose from 26 in August to 37. Buyers became more selective late in the quarter.
Make HOA value legible.Clearly present dues, reserves, amenities, recent assessments and what the fee covers. Buyers underwrite those items as part of the home’s value.
Use bracket-specific expectations.The $750K–$1M band retained 98.4% of list, while $2M-plus retained 96.7%. Negotiation norms change with the buyer pool.
Property-type comparison
Condos lower the entry price; SFRs move a little faster
These medians describe different housing products. The comparison is useful for budget and pace—not as a substitute for like-for-like valuation.
Single-family residences
Closed sales234
Median price$2.10M
Median $ / sf$878
Median DOM29 days
Sale / list97.2%
Condos & townhouses
Closed sales304
Median price$1.17M
Median $ / sf$729
Median DOM34 days
Sale / list98.1%
−$930Klower median purchase price
−$149lower median price per square foot
+5 dayslonger median market time
+0.9 pthigher median sale-to-list ratio
Methodology
Read both samples correctly
Universe: 234 records marked sold in Irvine, with close/status-change dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Property mix in the supplied file: 217 detached SFR, 16 attached SFR, and 1 unspecified SFR record. The headline includes all three; the explorer can isolate detached or attached records.
“Closed price” uses ClosePrice. Days on market uses the clean DaysOnMarket field for all 234 records—not cumulative DOM.
Sale-to-list ratio is ClosePrice ÷ ListPrice. A documented list-price reduction means ListPrice < OriginalListPrice (36% of records). Separately, 79% closed below original ask after including final negotiation.
Median is favored over average because 13 closings at $5M+ and a $17.65M maximum materially skew the average upward.
This is a closed-sales snapshot, not a forecast or appraisal. It does not include active inventory or pending contracts, and it does not adjust for concessions, HOA, Mello-Roos, lot, condition or financing terms.
Condo/townhouse universe: 304 Irvine records—277 condominiums and 27 townhouses—with close dates from July 1 through September 30, 2026.
Condo price-band calculations use closed price, clean DaysOnMarket and final list price from the supplied row-level export. The four-village table uses the MLS-area field.
MLS-area comparisons with very small samples can swing sharply. A property-specific CMA should narrow by true competitive set before making a pricing or offer decision.
Sources: CRMLS Full.csv (234 SFR records) and condo-Full.csv (304 condo/townhouse records), supplied for analysis on October 3, 2026. Calculations recomputed from 538 row-level closings.